April 3, 2015

After months of hard bargaining, a nuclear deal with Iran was finally announced yesterday in Switzerland. While the deal may not achieve everything that the US or some of its allies would want in an ideal world, it places real limits on Iran’s program and prevents Iran from building a bomb for at least the next ten years. If Iran were to break the agreement, it would still require at least a year for Iran to build its first bomb, providing the US time to reimpose sanctions and to consider military options.

The bigger question, however, is whether this deal is a singular event in US-Iranian relations, or a signal of a major change in a standoff that has lasted since 1979. Bringing Iran back into the mix of Middle East politics, and rebuilding US-Iranian relations, is a complex and fraught scenario. The US and Iran find themselves allies in the fight against ISIS in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan, while they are on opposite sides of the Syrian war. The US can improve its credibility if this nuclear deal leads to a US-Iranian effort to remove both ISIS and Assad, mutually necessary to end the Syrian conflict. Without a dual focus, gridlock will cost more innocent lives throughout Syria and Iraq, creating more despair.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been claiming Iran has been two years away from building a bomb since 1993, has done everything he can to provoke a US-Iranian military confrontation. President Obama has been wise to ignore him. He has also been wise to pursue the nuclear deal without bringing in side issues of Iranian foreign policy in general.

The effect of this deal could change the Middle East. With the biggest issue between them resolved, the US and Iran could now have the goodwill to at least talk about issues of disagreement, such as Syria and Yemen. The deal could also have negative repercussions, with the Saudis making a rash decision to increase their nuclear capabilities or Israel conducting some sort of anti-Iran operation.

The fine details of this framework will be filled in over the next 90 days, and Obama will sign this deal. Congress may not like it, but the Republicans, and even some Democrats who oppose it, offer nothing other than the fatuous statement that they want “a better deal.” Obama should ignore his critics and move forward. Beyond this nuclear deal with Iran, the rest of the Middle East should agree to a nuclear-free zone, i.e. working not only for non-proliferation but also for nuclear disarmament. Peace treaties are necessary for the people’s interests in the region to advance, or more realistically, to stop deteriorating. That’s also in the best interest of America.